Part 2 of the Chronicles of Consistency is hot off the press with more elite data from our man James Forwood!

If you haven’t yet, do yourself a favour and check him out on twitter. Like, follow, retweet, etc. @forwoodjimmy

Another quick shoutout to @jaidenpopowski who is a guru when it comes to AFL Fantasy stats – go check him out!

Before you read on, make sure you go and check out part 1 of this series which has everything you need to know about the data and how we interpret it!

Without further ado, here is part 2! Lets ruck and roll!

RUCKS

Quickfire Analysis

• The stats don’t lie… Illustrating how much of a headache our ruck selections were in 2022! Technically, the most consistent was Brodie Grundy with a 23 point range with his middle 50% of scores. That’s until you realise the big fella only played six games for the season!
• I think a lot of this variance comes down to clubs running with a second ruck man from time to time… This was particularly pertinent with guys like Marshall and English whose scoring suffered massively when Ryder/Campbell and Sweet were in their respective 22’s.
• The birth of ‘Grawndy’ will be an interesting phenomenon… Will they buck the trend and both score well whilst sharing ruck duties? Only time will tell!

FORWARDS

Quickfire Analysis

• Josh Dunkley activated beast mode in season 2022, with 75% of his scores greater than 101.5 – proper absurd. He enters a Lions midfield right in the premiership window so I can’t foresee much slowing him down in 2023!
• Based on the numbers, our most consistent forward was Dylan ‘Dynamic Dyl’ Moore, with 50% of his scores ranging between 82 and 105.
• On the other side of the coin, we had Connor Rozee who had 50% of his scores between 65 and 113, a whopping range of 48 points! Coaches with long memories will remember Rozee’s horror start to 2022, averaging a tick above 40 in the first month including a 21 in R1 where even people at the game had trouble locating the fella.

*In case you missed part 1, my advice remains the exactly the same and is as below.*

Final Takeaway

So what do we make of the data and how can we apply it when selecting our fantasy squads and formulating trade strategy across the season?

Well, my general rule of thumb to start the season is to err on the side of picking consistency. The last thing you want is your so called “reliable premos” dropping 60’s and 70’s, particularly with all the carnage that ensues and accumulates week on week! With scoring so variable from our rooks and mid-pricers, you want to be able to rest easy and back in your premos to perform on the regular, ensuring they avoid these stinkers. Not to mention the rookie patch-up work and jumping on players you missed that is key to keeping in touch with the pack early on. Consistency also becomes an important commodity when selecting our captains – in a perfect world we are left with an R.Laird perma captain sitch but we are not always afforded that luxury in AFL Fantasy!

As the season progresses and your squad becomes more established, you can afford to be a bit more adventurous with your selections… This is where it pays to take note of upcoming fixtures and favourable match ups so you can (potentially!) cash in on a ceiling. And if it doesn’t pay off? At least you know you have the trades up your sleeve to fix it up and can afford to go “sideways” without compromising your team structure significantly.

In the final few rounds, I like to throw caution to the wind and toss out this idea of consistency… When our squads are full of premos it’s about picking ceilings! While coaches are usually told to avoid key forwards like the plague, a soft match up in R22/R23 has implications on the Coleman Medal and if teams have someone within striking distance or up top, they will generally feed that player! I look back at 2019 where Jeremy Cameron (then playing for BWS) had 154 vs Gold Coast in R23 to all but sew up the Coleman with 9.5 – 14 scoring shots alone!

So there you have it folks, another elite collab with the man himself James Forwood! What do you make of the data and how will it influence your selections?

As aforementioned, go give the lad some love on twitter! Stay tuned for more preseason content – just under two weeks out from the season proper now so it’s time to get your squad together and apply the finishing touches.

Cheers legends,

Fantasy Fanatic #70