Buy, Hold, Fold: Round 5

Who’s on the chopping block heading into round 5? Get your trade tips and advice for the week with with Buy, Hold, Fold!

Buy:

Nathan O’Driscoll ($275K DEF/MID, FREO) – 109

A shining light in what has otherwise been a dire state of affairs with our defensive rookies! Scoring ability is there and his performance on the weekend will do his job security no harm. Will be one of the most traded in players this week with a breakeven of -32… watch the $$$ roll in!

Ben Keays ($966K MID, ADEL) – 134

For too long this man has been ignored… IF you are looking to trade out Patrick Cripps (more on this in the ‘hold/fold’ section) Keays could be your man to get a leg up on the competition! Criminal to think his ownership is just 3%! If you needed further convincing, Benny has not been tagged in a Crom game in living memory!

Jack Sinclair ($759K DEF, STK) – 113

One of about 23 Jacks on St Kilda’s list… Time to take Sincs seriously after another stellar display playing through the midfield and off half-back. Has a low score of 93 over the first 4 rounds so the consistency is there. At 4% ownership, Sincs (much like Keays) could be your leg up on the rest of the comp!

In the Mix: Bailey Smith, Marcus Windhager, Jade Gresham

Hold:

Christian Petracca ($942K MID, MELB) – 77

After 2×135+ scores to start the season, CP5 has endured a quieter two weeks, averaging just 80 in this time… Had Willem Drew for company last Thursday night – rumour is he even followed CP5 to the shitters at HT and the carpark after the game! Trade at your own peril.

Zak Butters ($720K FWD, PA) – 77

It’s easy to forget that just 2 weeks ago Butters pumped out a huuuuuge 137! Surely you have got more pressing issues elsewhere… Hold.

Patrick Cripps ($803K MID, CARL) – 36

Controversial I know… However, news has come through that our man Crippa is likely to miss just the one game at this point. Given we have so many trades, I can understand why you would fold! However, with Crippa’s form to date, I think he can mix it with the top 8-10 mids come seasons end… IF you have decent bench cover, it may be worth short-term pain for long-term gain – remember you are going to need a bit of cash to get up to an uber premo as well! The obvious concern is this ‘1 week hammy’ could easily turn into 2 or 3 weeks – we’ve been burnt by these overly optimistic injury reports before!

In the Mix: Touk Miller, Jake Lloooooooyd, Jake Bowey

Fold:

Jack Ziebell ($763K DEF, NM) – 80

Wow… the weekend was the first time I have seen Ziebell have a big impact on a game of footy in yonks! 5 snags for the wily veteran! Unfortunately, this only translated into 80 fantasy points and if this role change remains, I can’t see Ziebs pushing triple figures as coaches would have been hoping…

Josh ‘Psychiatric’ Ward ($381K MID, HAW) – 27

Our man ‘Pyschiatric’ for some reason was allergic to the Sherrin on the weekend, resulting in an abysmal 27! With a breakeven of 40, he is getting close to peaking in value and with reports of Liam Shiels good form in the Magoos, Ward may be the one squeezed out at selection…

Paddy McCartin ($359K DEF/FWD, SYD) – 36

Another rook whose average and breakeven are fast approaching one another… probably only has another 1-2 weeks of price rises at best before peaking.

In the Mix: Matt Rowell, Connor McDonald, Ollie Wines

Round 4 Top Scorers

  • Max Gawn ($842K RUC, MELB) – 140
  • Zac Williams ($658K DEF, CARL) – 137
  • Ben Keays ($966K MID, ADEL) – 134
  • Bazlenka Smith ($872K MID, WB) – 131
  • Jack Steele ($955K MID, STK) – 130
  • Jack Macrae ($920K MID, WB) – 130

Top 5 Price Rises

  • Nick Daicos ($545K MID | COLL | 70.52% ownership) +$88K
  • Will Brodie ($595K FWD/MID | FREO | 41.62% ownership) +$76K
  • Nic ‘Alpha’ Martin ($422K FWD | ESS | 42.06% ownership) +$74K
  • Nathan O’Driscoll ($275K DEF/MID | FREO | 35.54% ownership) +$73K
  • Zac Williams ($658K DEF | CARL | 1.66% ownership) +$61K

Top 5 Price Drops

  • Josh Rotham ($525K DEF | WCE | 0.19% ownership) -$59K
  • Aiden Bonar ($250K DEF | NM | 0.2% ownership) -$57K
  • Trent Bianco ($434K FWD | COLL | 0.08% ownership) -$57K
  • Luke Parker ($761K MID | SYD | 0.82% ownership) -$56K
  • Ollie Wines ($883K MID | PA | 5.26% ownership) -$54K

Lowest Breakevens

  • Nathan O’Driscoll ($275K DEF/MID | FREO | 35.54% ownership) -32
  • Hugh Dixon ($278K FWD/RUC | WCE | 42.76% ownership) -12
  • Nic ‘Alpha’ Martin ($422K FWD | ESS | 42.06% ownership) -7
  • Nick Daicos ($545K MID | COLL | 70.52% ownership) -2
  • Corey Durdin ($268K FWD | CARL | 28.73% ownership) 2

Highest Breakevens

  • Ollie Wines ($883K MID | PA | 5.26% ownership) – 160
  • Touk Miller ($934K MID | GCS | 21.21% ownership) – 160
  • Christian ‘Norm’ Petracca ($942K MID | MELB | 25.99% ownership) – 154
  • Luke Parker ($761K MID | SYD | 0.82% ownership) – 148
  • Jeremy Howe ($744K DEF | COLL | 1.32% ownership) – 137

*Ownership % as of 11pm 11 April 2022. Minimum 2 games played.

So who’s on the chopping block in your squad? Share your trade plans in the comments below!

Cheers legends,

Fantasy Fanatic #70

One thought on “Buy, Hold, Fold: Round 5

  1. Pingback: AFL Fantasy Round 5 Ready: Captains, Rookie Radar and Final Thoughts | Fantasy Fanatic

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